16 years ago, I left my role running capital markets in Asia for an European investment bank. I had spent my entire career in derivatives,but when it came time to invest my own money, I invested in private deals.

I started Monte Carlo Capital in 2009 with a simple idea: I could achieve significantly better returns by investing privately—by identifying, backing, and helping shape the trajectory of early-stage tech companies. 

Over the years, this personal conviction evolved into a venture capital firm, backing some of the most disruptive startups across the U.S. and Europe. 

Nonetheless, the philosophy remains unchanged: if you want to participate in the future, you need to invest at the beginning of it.

That’s why I believe that seed-stage investing deserves a place in the long-term strategy of professional investors. Not late-stage venture. Not growth equity. Seed.

Let me explain why.


The World’s Wealth Engine Has Shifted

Wealth today is being created by entrepreneurs—not by public markets or traditional institutions. Seeed investors are first in line to participate. According to the latest PitchBook figures annualised seed fund returns hover around 25%, compared to 13% for Series B and beyond.

The best companies are staying private longer, capturing more of their growth before listing. By the time they reach the public markets, in most instances, early investors have benefited from the most explosive gains.

If you’re only investing in public markets, you’re not just arriving late—you’re missing the party (and could be in for a rocky ride).


Technology Is Still in Its Infancy

There’s a common myth that we’re nearing the end of technological disruption—that we’ve already seen the major shifts with the internet, AI, or biotech. But in truth, we are just getting started.

Civilization is a blink in the context of planetary time. The pyramids were built only 5,000 years ago. A century ago, life expectancy was dramatically lower. Electricity was not universal. Flight was still a novelty.

If you could travel back 100 years and describe your life today—real-time video calls, robotic surgery, AI assistants—you’d be seen as having divine powers. Now imagine your great-great-grandchildren doing the same to you, a century from now.

The pace of change is exponential. Entire industries will be redefined. Some will vanish. Trillions in value will be created. Blue chip legacy companies will disappear.

Stock market fluctuations, geopolitics, and inflation are not changing any of this. This is one of the most significant structural trends shaping our world. The only way to be part of that future is to invest in it early, at seed.

 

Isn’t Seed Investing Risky ?

I sometimes hear that seed investing is risky. But let me ask you this: what’s truly riskier—backing a portfolio of early-stage companies solving major global problems, or sitting on idle cash in an inflationary world?

Holding cash guarantees loss. Public markets are increasingly erratic, driven by sentiment and noise, and offer little edge. Seed investing, when done right, has historically delivered strong long-term returns and aligns your capital with where the world is heading.

I would argue that not being involved is the real risk. In a world being reshaped by accelerating technology, staying on the sidelines means falling behind.

Seed is not risky when done properly— but it’s illiquid and long-term.

What seed investing requires is a structured, disciplined approach: focus on what you can control, in order to manage what you can’t.


The Seed Investing Playbook

There are many variables in venture that you can’t control: macroeconomic shocks, pandemics, regulation, co-founder fallouts. But here’s what you can control:

  • Deal Flow: This is everything. Without access to the best companies, you’re left with what others passed on. And this is where most private investors fail.
  • Diversify: Seed stage companies are of course inherently riskier than later stage companies. But on a portfolio basis, seed investing outperforms. This is why it’s important to build a diversified portfolio.
  • Selection: Seed returns follow the power law. A few companies will drive most of the returns. The key isn’t avoiding failure—it’s capturing the rare breakout successes that go from 1 to 50. Invest in companies addressing massive markets, able to build a moat, and exceptional teams.
  • Cap Table: It takes a village to build a business. Co-invest with the best seed investors who bring value beyond capital.
  • Invest Regularly: Seed investing is subject to a J-curve—a tendency for performance to appear flat or even negative for the first several years, with all the upside realized at the back end (years 6 and beyond in today’s market). It’s important to invest consistently, through cycles, across vintages. By doing so you smooth out the J-curve, control the pace at which you deploy capital, and ride through economic cycles


Our Investment Philosophy

We invest with a clear thesis, across sectors:

  • Painkillers, not Vitamins: We back businesses solving critical pain points, not just nice-to-haves. These companies scale faster, achieve stronger product-market fit, and perform better in downturns.
  • Tech-Enabled Disruption: We target businesses using technology to reshape inefficient, outdated sectors.
  • Large Addressable Markets: It is critical to only back businesses with very large outcome potential ($1Bio+) to fully take advantage of  the Power Law.

You can check out our portfolio here.


How to Start Building a Seed Portfolio

I’m often asked how to get started. My advice is always the same:

  1. Commit to a 4–6 year plan. Don’t go all in right away. Just commit to investing regularly small amounts each time, irrespective of the fluctuations in the stock market, and gradually build a portfolio.
  2. Adjust for liquidity. If cash is tight, reduce the ticket size—but don’t pause. Keep the rhythm.
  3. Reinvest gains. Once exits start happening, recycle that capital back into new seed deals.
  4. Focus on access. Align yourself with investors who have access to the best companies.

Done properly, this strategy minimizes risk, mitigates the J-curve, and creates exposure to one of the most profitable and exciting asset classes.


Final Word

Seed investing is not a trend. It’s not a niche. It’s the foundation of all future wealth creation.

We’re living through a profound shift—technological, economic, and generational. Capital follows the power law. A few companies will generate the lion’s share of returns. And those companies all start at seed.

 

All the best

Ian